Alright, let's get one thing straight: I'm tired of seeing these "growth opportunity" articles about Hims & Hers (HIMS). Another one? Seriously? Every freakin' week it's the same song and dance. They missed earnings by 3 cents? Who cares! The stock is still a freakin' roller coaster.
The HIMS Hype Machine
The analysts are saying "potential upside performance of 24.51%." Potential. That's the key word, ain't it? It could go up. It could also crash and burn like my last attempt at baking a soufflé. What's the average 12-month price target? $45.27? I'll believe it when I see it. Remember when everyone was screaming "Tesla to the moon!"? Yeah, how's that working out?
And this "discussions with Novo Nordisk" bit? "Advancing consumer options and pursuant to prescriber recommendation." Translation: We're hoping to ride the Ozempic gravy train if the FDA ever gets their act together. Big if.
They're supposedly in discussions to distribute Wegovy. Discussions! That's like saying I'm in discussions with Scarlett Johansson about getting married. It sounds nice, but it ain't happening anytime soon.
Numbers Don't Lie, But They Can Confuse
Okay, fine, the Q3 numbers weren't terrible. Revenue up 49% year-over-year. Subscribers up 21%. Net income of almost $16 million. Adjusted EBITDA of over $78 million. All sounds rosy, right? Until you dig a little deeper.
Gross margin down from 79% to 74%. Net income way down from $75.6 million last year. Why? Because last year had a $60.8 million tax benefit. So, strip that out, and suddenly things look a lot less impressive. They try to distract you with "Adjusted EBITDA" to make it look better. It's the oldest trick in the book.
I saw one analyst say that "Hims & Hers Health also offers compounded GLP-1 injections, which contain the same ingredients as Novo Nordisk’s NYSE: NVO Ozempic and Wegovy." So basically, they're selling a knock-off version? Is that really something to brag about? And are they gonna get sued into oblivion by Novo Nordisk?
The Roller Coaster of Emotion (and HIMS Stock)
This stock is more volatile than my ex-girlfriend. Up 173%, then down 63%. Up 146%, then down 36%. Seriously? Who can stomach that kind of wild ride? Day traders, maybe. But for us regular folks trying to build a long-term portfolio? Give me a break. It's exhausting. HIMS Has Been a Roller Coaster Ride. Should Investors Hop On?
They're at the "intersection of multiple high-growth industries" – sexual health, hair thinning, telehealth, weight loss. Sounds great on paper. But being in a bunch of high-growth industries doesn't guarantee success. It just means more competition, more risk, and more opportunities to screw things up.
And this share buyback program? Is that really a sign of strength, or are they just trying to prop up the stock price because they know it's overvalued? I can't tell anymore...
Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe I'm just too cynical. Maybe Hims & Hers really is the future of healthcare. But I doubt it.
So, What's the Real Story?
It's a hyped-up, overvalued stock riding on the fumes of potential and knock-off drugs. Stay away.
